The Carbon Crunch by Dieter Helm

Author:Dieter Helm
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9780300215328
Publisher: Yale University Press

More can be extracted from existing wells

A second blow to the peak oil theorists is the fact that technological progress not only makes it possible to find and exploit new reserves, and to bring abundant shale gas and oil to market, but it also makes it possible to get more oil out of existing wells. As the oil is extracted, pressure falls and there comes a point where it is more economical to start with new wells than face the costs of lower pressures in existing wells. In most cases, the depleted wells are abandoned.

But as with the shale gas and oil revolution, it is a mistake to neglect technical progress in the fossil fuel industry, and to assume that this is largely associated with the renewables and other ‘good’ technologies. On the contrary, the pace of oil and gas technology – and its development – is rapid, especially at higher oil prices.

To see the impact of a small increase in recovery rates, assume that the average recovery rate is limited to 50% of its total physical resources. There would then be more oil left behind in existing wells than the entire world oil production to date. Much of this is of course unrecoverable, and many wells have been seriously compromised by the use of water and other means to keep pressure levels up. But the oil remains, and a 1% increase in recovery rates makes an enormous difference to the reserves position. The relevant questions are what technologies are available – or are likely to become available – to increase the potential recovery rates, and at what price they become economically viable to apply.

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